The condition, which occurs when long-term interest rates are lower than short-term rates in the Treasury bond market, was once seen as a pretty clear signal of a recession ahead.

The narrow gap between long-term and short-term rates is something Greenspan famously referred to as a conundrum, and the flat or inverted yield curve seen Wednesday is just the latest example of that puzzle, experts said.

"In previous episodes when an inverted yield curve was followed by recession, the level of interest rates was quite high, consistent with considerable financial restraint," Bernanke said in a speech in March. "This time, both short- and long-term interest rates -- in nominal and real terms -- are relatively low by historical standards."

Giddis and Schlesinger both said they're skeptical that an inverted yield curve now will mean a recession later this year

More likely? It's signaling slower economic growth ahead. And maybe an end to Fed rate hikes sooner rather than later.

A bejegyzés trackback címe:

Kommentek:

A hozzászólások a vonatkozó jogszabályok  értelmében felhasználói tartalomnak minősülnek, értük a szolgáltatás technikai  üzemeltetője semmilyen felelősséget nem vállal, azokat nem ellenőrzi. Kifogás esetén forduljon a blog szerkesztőjéhez. Részletek a  Felhasználási feltételekben és az adatvédelmi tájékoztatóban.