As the chart shows, one sector, comprised of economically-sensitive issues, has been lagging the broader market for several months. In fact, the Morgan Stanley cyclical index has just hit its lowest level relative to the S&P 500 index in three years. Given that cyclical stocks led the way up when the bull market began more than three years ago, the obvious question is: Are they at the forefront once again?
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Exchange traded funds (ETFs, ETNs, ETPs, etc.) had a $13.1 billion inflow of new capital in June, bringing the YTD total inflow to $78.3B. 2012 has had the strongest first half of the past five years.
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“Extreme price moves are not uncommon, particularly when unusual weather patterns are involved…Note that while the June-July 2012 move in corn looks impressive, it pales in comparison to the spikes in corn prices that occurred in 1994-1996, 2005-2008 and 2010-2011. In other words, this could be just the beginning of a huge move in corn prices, particularly given that the price move of the last month or so comes on top of a much higher base.
Corn may be putting in a top soon, but a fat-tailed spike is not guaranteed to top out at the prior highs of $8.00 per bushel.”
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